I
write this on 18 July 2016, when the UK parliament is discussing and
is about to vote upon whether to replace our Trident nuclear
deterrent. I am not at all interested in waiting for the result,
which is a forgone conclusion that Parliament will vote in favour of
renewal. I am fully aware that the government has called this vote
today to embarrass Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, who is against
renewal, whilst the majority of his MPs are in favour of renewal. I
have no doubt that it is also intended to attempt to humiliate the 56
SNP MPs, who will all vote against renewal. It of course will not
humiliate the SNP; as Trident is based in Scottish waters, vastly
against the wishes of the majority of Scots, it will only bolster
calls for independence.
Rather
this article seeks to look at some of the main arguments for
retaining nuclear weapons, and showing just how facile they are.
~
The balance of
terror maintains peace through the concept of Mutually Assured
Destruction (MAD). As long as both parties have nuclear weapons, the
threat of annihilation outweighs any advantage of attack.
No, it never has and
never will. The 'cold war' started when the USSR gained nuclear
capability in 1951, and since then the two superpowers, Russia and
the USA, have developed and built up massive stockpiles of nuclear
weapons, as have China and the UK. These nations have been almost
constantly involved in armed conflict somewhere in the world ever
since. Often these conflicts have been against allies of one country
opposed to the other. Nuclear weapons did not stop the Korean War,
Suez, the Vietnam War, the Falklands War, the US invasion of the UK
dependency of Grenada, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the first
and second Iraq Wars, the Russian invasion of Crimea. Neither have
they stopped US and Russian adventurism and flexing their muscles in
theatres of opposing powers.
Besides which, the
counterbalance argument is self-defeating, for if it can be argued
that nuclear weapons ensure peace, then it could equally be strongly
argued that every country in the world should have them.
Nuclear weapons
protect us from emergent threats of other countries gaining nuclear
weapons.
Whenever
this line is played out, the nations mentioned tend to be Iran and
North Korea. In fact, Iran continually told the west that their
nuclear programme was purely civil, with no military capability. US
intelligence, Israeli intelligence, the International Atomic Energy
Authority, and the EU all came to the same conclusions; Iraq does not
have nuclear weapons, is not developing nuclear weapons, and there is
no evidence to suggest they may develop nuclear weapons in the first
place.
As
to North Korea, they are the masters of kidology, and there is
absolutely no evidence to suggest that they have ever test fired one
nuclear device; the readings on seismographs worldwide have never
shown a nuclear “signature” from their alleged test fires.
But
even if these nations did develop nuclear weapons, that would only be
part of them becoming a threat to the UK. They would then have to
develop means of delivery, which would mean building intercontinental
ballistic missile technology. Not only do neither Iran nor North
Korea possess such technology, but North Korea's missile technology
is desirable. They have had so many misfires that North Korea
purposely test-fires missiles by the coast, so that if they do go
wrong, they will safely fall into the sea. And even if North Korea
could develop decent missiles, they would still be out of range of
the UK, and most of the USA for that matter.
The
west, particularly the USA and the UK, are more than happy to play
the game of kidology with Iran and North Korea, to justify them
keeping their own nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons
protect us from terrorist attack.
This
is just a downright and utter lie.
On
9 September 2001 the most devastating terrorist attack in history
took place against the USA, when four airliners were hijacked by
terrorists carrying bolt cutters. It was an extremely low-tech
attack, which cost 2996
lives, against the one nation with the world's largest stockpiles of
nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Since then there have been
international terrorist attacks in the UK and in France, both of whom
have nuclear weapons. In all three countries weapons of mass
destruction were useless, for there was simply no legitimate attack
to reply to.
Even
if internationalist terrorists developed and exploded a nuclear
weapon in a country with nuclear capability, who could they respond
to? If the terrorists were allied to ISIL, would the response then
be to launch a nuclear strike upon Iraq and / or Syria, killing
millions of innocents and despite the official governments of those
countries not actually having any part in the terrorist attack? And
if so, then nuclear weapons fail to be a deterrent and would become
an offensive attack weapon.
Nuclear
weapons cannot deter terrorist attack for the simple fact there is no
legitimate target to respond to. They have not deterred terrorist
attacks, they are not doing so, and if it has happened once, it can
happen again.
We can only
disarm when other countries disarm.
This
is the argument of the arms race. And the trouble is that under arms
races countries tend not to disarm. Quite the opposite, they tend to
increase their firepower, then give the excuse they had to because
their 'enemy' is increasing theirs (often a lie). And so it
continues in an ever-increasing spiral, with both sides bristling at
each other, until that escalates into all-out war. The balance of
terror is the only arms race in history which has not ended in war –
yet.
And
this argument of course completely destroys the arguments against
needing nuclear weapons against emergent threats and terrorists, for
they have little or nothing to disarm, yet we already have a huge
stockpile of nuclear weapons to counter them with. Who then is being
the aggressor?
On
the international stage, if we are to rely upon a multilateral
approach to disarmament, then someone has to take the first step;
that is how detente works. It has in fact already worked. With the
fall of Communism in the USSR, Russian SS20 missiles were withdrawn
from eastern Europe, and US-controlled ground-launched Cruise
missiles were withdrawn from western Europe in return. But it is
wholly reliant upon one side taking the first step. So long as the
UK digs her heels in and remains wholly recalcitrant about even
reducing our nuclear capability, we merely make the world a much more
dangerous place.
“The journey of
a thousand miles begins with one single step.”
(Lao Tzu)
Nuclear weapons
protect our way of life.
What
way of life? People queueing at foodbanks, millions – including
children – living below the poverty line, thousands homeless,
people on benefits dying and committing suicide when those benefits
are cut, 20% of school leavers illiterate and / or without basic
number skills. Oh, but others say, think of our freedoms. What
freedoms? We are gradually eroding our freedoms in the name of
defence. The UK has the highest incidence of CCTV cameras in public
places in the world, and pretty soon everything you browse and
everything you post online shall be subject to government scrutiny.
Democratic
government, freedom of speech and freedom of expression
are likewise not reliant upon nuclear weapons. The vast majority of
countries which enjoy these freedoms do not have nuclear weapons. I
don't see Japan, Australia
and New Zealand, potentially
targets of a Chinese attack, being in any hurry to adopt nuclear
weapons, yet all
have democracy and among the best human rights records and standards
of living in the world.
We need nuclear
weapons to be a member of NATO.
No,
we seriously do not. There are 28 member states of NATO. Of those
only three, the USA, the UK, and France, possess nuclear weapons.
Nuclear weapons
guarantee the UK a place on the UN Security Council.
The
UK is in the permanent
members of the UN Security Council, the other four being the USA, the
Russian Federation, China, and France. There are however another ten
non-permanent members of the Council. There is no reason why the UK
could not join the non-permanent members, and due to UK prestige in
the world, we would permanently be there. Besides, having nuclear
weapons are not the sole criteria for being a permanent member and UK
prestige could very well keep us there.
There are
thousands of defence jobs reliant upon our nuclear deterrent.
Actually,
a freedom of information request by Scottish CND in 2014 proved that
a mere 528 jobs were reliant upon the Trident base at Faslane. But
even if one takes into consideration those indirectly affected,
consider that there are thousands of more jobs in the UK which are
reliant upon the work of the National Health Service. Therefore
those using the jobs argument could just as easily say that those
health jobs, and those indirectly affected, are reliant upon heart
disease, cancer, AIDS, etc. Would they then try to argue that we
need to retain these killers to retain jobs?
Add
into this that over-reliance upon missile technology has for decades
seen cuts in defence in other places, so nuclear weapons far from
retaining and creating employment is actually costing defence jobs.
The abandoned MoD bases across Scotland and elsewhere in the UK are
testament to that fact. Ask the local in Edzell, Lossiemouth,
Leuchars, Kirkliston, etc., how much they have benefited from
reliance upon nuclear weapons. Or better still, go ask veterans of
Afghanistan and Iraq who had to buy their own boots, because British
Army boots were so shoddy that the soles were melting off them. Not
only does nuclear over-reliance cost jobs, it indirectly has cost the
lives of UK service personnel.
Nuclear weapons
prevent proliferation.
Give
me strength. This has got to be the daftest argument yet. The
argument goes that if larger countries have nuclear weapons it will
deter other countries from developing them, or if smaller countries
are under the “nuclear umbrella” of NATO, the Russian Federation,
or China, they will see no need to develop nuclear weapons.
Cough!
Cough! Bullshit! Cough!
After
the USA developed the atomic bomb, then thermonuclear weapons, the
USSR were not far behind. Then the UK joined the nuclear club, then
China, then France. In 1974 India test-fired it's first nuclear
weapon, but the USSR stepped in and agreed to help India develop
civil nuclear power in return for them not building nuclear weapons.
In 1979 a US-Vela satellite picked up a double flash of a nuclear
explosion in the South Atlantic Ocean – a joint South African /
Israeli test fire. South Africa actually built six atomic bombs,
which were dismantled after the fall of the Apartheid regime. Since
then India and Pakistan have joined the official nuclear club, while
Israel almost certainly has nuclear capability.
The
countries involved have all been signatories to the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which dates back to Ike Eisenhower's
“Atoms for Peace” movement of the 1950s. Under the NPT
signatories get help developing civil nuclear power programmes in
return for agreeing not to develop nuclear weapons. The NP T is a
complete paper tiger, and it was only by being a signatory that India
was able to get reactors capable of enriching uranium to fissile
material for their 1974 test-fire, just as it helped South Africa
develop the same capability.
I
love the lies on the World Nuclear Association website, which states
“The international
safeguards system has since 1970 successfully prevented the diversion
of fissile materials into weapons.” Were that in any way true,
there simply would not be so many countries in the nuclear club
today.
Bottom
line; the “big five” having nuclear weapons does not prevent
nuclear proliferation, history has proven that it makes it all the
more likely.
~
So
really why does the UK have nuclear weapons? Well, it's simply a
matter of prestige, and as great as he was in other things, we have a
Labour statesman to blame for that. Aneurin Bevan was the architect
of the National Health Service. He was a diehard socialist who
despised the extremes of capitalism and the ills it created. In 1957
he shocked the Labour Party Conference when he made a statement on
unilateral nuclear disarmament; “ It is the most difficult of all
problems facing mankind. But if you carry this resolution and follow
out all its implications — and do not run away from it — you will
send a British Foreign Secretary, whoever he may be, naked into the
conference chamber. ... And you call that statesmanship? I call it an
emotional spasm.”
I'm
afraid if anyone was having an emotional spasm, it was Nye Bevan, for
it was he looked to the diplomatic advantages of having nuclear
weapons, without weighing up the disadvantages. And ever since then
it has been the same old story. If anyone thinks that the Russian
Federation, or anyone else is at all threatened by the UK's nuclear
capability, which is absolutely puny compared to theirs, then they
are kidding themselves. Having nuclear weapons does however bring
world prestige. Look at how nobody paid India and Pakistan much
attention nor treated them seriously until they developed nuclear
weapons. Now the developed countries are falling over each other to
be friends with them.
We
have sold the family silver in the UK, thrown
away education, thrown away childcare, thrown away healthcare, thrown
away our rights, thrown away jobs, thrown away benefits, even thrown
away the lives of people on
benefits and armed forces
personnel, all in order to join
the other big boys behind the bike shed showing off that we've got a
big willy as well.
And
all for what? For a weapon without a target, a weapon which as it
cannot differentiate between military and civilian targets is
actually illegal under international law, and if it were ever used,
could only ever be in an offensive attack, or in a petty act of
retaliation, which would kill millions of innocents, purely because
innocents had been killed here.
That's
not deterrence, it is pure insanity.